Market digest: housing association bond yields – February 2024

Insight01 Mar 2024Chloe Stothart

How did financial market movements and political swings affect housing association bonds in the secondary market in February 2024?

Picture: Alamy

Sharelines

How did financial market movements and political swings affect housing association bonds in the secondary market in February 2024? #UKhousing #SocialHousingFinance

At a glance

Market summary
Sonia rates
Gilt yields
Swap rates
Retail bonds
UK Treasury reference gilts
Housing association public issues

Market summary

Base rate	16 November	7 December	8 January	7 February
UK	5.25	5.25	5.25	5.25
US*	5.50	5.50	5.50	5.50
EU	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50
FTSE 100	7,471.31	7,487.53	7,667.82	7,676.52

Note: * = current range 0.00-0.25

Sonia rates

	15 November	6 December	5 January	6 February
One month	5.20	5.20	5.20	5.19
Three month	5.24	5.23	5.20	5.21
Six month	5.27	5.23	5.15	5.17

Source: Aquila Treasury & Finance Solutions

Gilt yields

	16 November	7 December	8 January	7 February
Two year	4.56	4.51	4.25	4.47
Three year	4.29	4.18	3.90	4.10
Four year	4.08	3.98	3.75	3.94
Five year	4.18	4.03	3.78	3.96
Seven year	4.03	3.86	3.66	3.82
10 year	4.17	3.99	3.81	3.96
15 year	4.49	4.32	4.17	4.30
20 year	4.57	4.44	4.34	4.47
25 year	4.58	4.46	4.38	4.53
30 year	4.59	4.49	4.41	4.56
40 year	4.47	4.39	4.33	4.49
50 year	4.13	4.04	3.98	4.16

Source: Aquila Treasury & Finance Solutions

Swap rates

	16 November	7 December	8 January	7 February
Two year	4.75	4.63	4.26	4.41
Three year	4.49	4.33	3.95	4.12
Four year	4.32	4.15	3.78	3.95
Five year	4.21	4.02	3.68	3.84
Seven year	4.07	3.87	3.58	3.74
10 year	4.02	3.81	3.59	3.74
15 year	4.03	3.83	3.67	3.83
20 year	4.02	3.83	3.70	3.86
25 year	3.98	3.79	3.69	3.86
30 year	3.92	3.74	3.65	3.83
40 year	3.80	3.63	3.56	3.74
50 year	3.67	3.50	3.43	3.64

Source: Aquila Treasury & Finance Solutions

Retail bonds

Issuer	Credit rating	Issue date	Nominal £m	Price (p) at 07/02/2024	Change on month (bp)	Yield (%) at 07/02/2024	Change on month (bp)
A2Dominion 4.50%, 2026	A (Fitch)	09/14	£150	97.13	+0.18	4.87	-2

Source: London Stock Exchange

UK Treasury reference gilts for housing association bond issues

Reference gilts: letters in brackets refer to bonds; see table below	Yield (%) at 07/02/2024	Change on month (bp)
(a) priced over: Treasury 1.25%, 2041	4.42	+16
(b) priced over: Treasury 1.25%, 2051	4.50	+16
(c) priced over: Treasury 4.50%, 2034	4.07	+19
(f) priced over: Treasury 2.00%, 2025	4.39	+28
(g) priced over: Treasury 5.00%, 2025	4.71	+27
(h) priced over: Treasury 6.00%, 2028	3.85	+19
(i) priced over: Treasury 4.75%, 2030	3.84	+21
(j) priced over: Treasury 4.25%, 2032	3.88	+19
(k) priced over: Treasury 4.25%, 2036	4.15	+19
(l) priced over: Treasury 3.25%, 2044	4.51	+15
(m) priced over: Treasury 4.75%, 2038	4.32	+18
(n) priced over: Treasury 4.50%, 2042	4.46	+16
(o) priced over: Treasury 1.75%, 2057	4.44	+16
(p) priced over: Treasury 3.50%, 2045	4.52	+15
(r) priced over: Treasury 4.25%, 2046	4.53	+15
(s) priced over: Treasury 4.25%, 2049	4.54	+16
(t) priced over: Treasury 3.75%, 2052	4.53	+17
(u) priced over: Treasury 4.25%, 2055	4.53	+16
(v) priced over: Treasury 1.50%, 2026	4.02	+22
(w) priced over: Treasury 1.50%, 2047	4.53	+16
(x) priced over: Treasury 1.63%, 2054	4.49	+16
(y) priced over: Treasury 0.625%, 2050	4.48	+16
(z) priced over: Treasury 1.25%, 2027	3.94	+24

Source: UK Debt Management Office. Note: n/s not previously tracked by Social Housing

Housing association public issues, ranked by maturity date

Securities above £100m (final brackets indicate reference gilt: see table above)	Rating: Moody’s / S&P / Fitch	Date of last issue	Nominal amount (£m)	Yield at last issue (%)	Margin at last issue (basis points)	Yield at 07/02/2024 (%)	Change on month (basis points)	Margin at 07/02/2024 (basis points)	Change on month (+ or -)
London & Quadrant 2.625%, 2026 (f)	A3/A-/A+	05/16	£300	2.69	107	5.57	+21	117	-8
Places for People 2.88%, 2026 (v)	A3/A-/A	08/16	£400	2.45	179	5.36	+21	134	-1
PRS Finance 1.75%, 2026 (v)	Aa3/–/–	11/16	£582	1.89	46	4.50	+19	48	-3
Folio Residential London 1.246%, 2027 (z)	Aa1/–/–	10/20	£250	1.25	128	5.24	+21	130	-3
London & Quadrant 2.63%, 2028 (h)	A3/A-/A+	02/18	£250	2.74	118	5.18	+13	133	-7
A2Dominion 3.5%, 2028 (h)	–/–/A	11/16	£250	3.81	230	5.68	+12	183	-7
London & Quadrant 2.25%, 2029 (h)	A3/A-/A+	07/17	£250	2.20	100	5.22	+18	137	-2
Clarion Funding 2.63%, 2029 (h)	A3/A-/–	01/19	£300	2.72	148	5.01	+12	116	-7
Notting Hill Genesis 2.88%, 2029 (h)	A3/A-/A	01/19	£250	2.97	173	5.07	+9	122	-11
Sanctuary 8.37%, 2031 (h)	A2/A/–	05/98	£90	6.76	90	5.28	+17	143	-2
Places for People 5.88%, 2031 (i)	A3/A-/A	05/11	£175	5.79	170	5.37	+9	153	-12
Notting Hill 3.75%, 2032 (j)	A3/A-/A	12/12	£350	3.75	108	5.14	+11	126	-8
London & Quadrant 2.00%, 2032 (j)	A3/A-/A+	01/22	£300	2.03	87	5.15	+15	128	-4
Aster Treasury, 5.412%, 2032 (j)	–/A+/–	06/23	£250	5.41	110	4.92	+18	105	-1
London & Quadrant 4.62%, 2033 (j)	A3/A-/A+	03/12	£250	4.62	157	5.12	+14	124	-5
Quadrant HF 7.90%, 2018/33 (h)	A3/A-/A+	02/98	£130	6.92	86	5.07	-14	122	-33
Harbour Funding 5.28%, 2034 (j)	A3/A-/–	08/03	£206	5.28	58	5.26	+18	139	-1
Peabody Capital No 2 2.75%, 2034 (c)	A3/A-/–	02/22	£350	2.85	125	5.33	+10	126	-9
THFC (Funding No.1) 5.12%, 2035 (k)	–/A/–	07/08	£223	5.96	135	5.58	+51	107	-4
Clarion, 1.875%, 2035 (c)	A3/A-/–	01/20	£350	1.88	98	5.19	+10	112	-9
Optivo 2.857%, 2035 (c)	A3/–/–	03/20	£250	2.86	230	5.38	+13	131	-6
Aster 1.405%, 2036 (k)	–/A+/–	01/21	£250	1.40	80	5.28	+53	77	-2
Notting Hill 2.00%, 2036 (k)	A3/A-/A	06/21	£250	2.08	100	5.72	+49	121	-6
Paragon 2.00%, 2036 (k)	A3/A-/–	05/21	£300	2.03	87	5.86	+50	135	-5
Metropolitan Housing Trust 1.875%, 2036 (k)	–/A-/–	07/21	£250	2.00	115	5.71	+52	120	-3
Stonewater 1.625%, 2036 (k)	A3/A/–	09/21	£250	1.75	85	5.50	+53	99	-2
Southern 2.375%, 2036 (k)	A3/–/–	10/21	£300	2.50	130	5.85	+52	134	-3
Home 8.75%, 2037 (k)	–/A-/–	07/93	£100	8.75	110	n/s	n/s	n/s	n/s
Haven (37) 8.12%, 2037 (i)	Baa1/BBB+/–	08/00	£145	6.78	200	5.59	+20	175	-1
Affinity Sutton 5.98%, 2038 (m)	A3/A-/–	09/08	£250	5.98	155	5.48	+12	116	-6
Circle Anglia 7.25%, 2038 (m)	A3/A-/–	11/10	£385	5.38	110	5.49	+9	117	-8
Longhurst 5.13%, 2038 (m)	A3/–/–	07/12	£250	5.24	242	5.49	+12	117	-5
RSL Finance (No.1) 6.62%, 2038 (m)	A2/–/–	06/03	£343	5.37	95	5.56	+10	124	-8
GB Social Housing 5.19%, 2038 (m)	–/A-/–	05/14	£324	4.82	150	n/s	n/s	132	n/s
MORHomes 3.4%, 2038 (m)	–/A-/–	03/21	£453	2.78	130	5.62	+11	130	-7
London & Quadrant 2.00%, 2038 (m)	A3/A-/A+	10/20	£250	2.07	140	5.47	+13	115	-5
Southern 4.50-5.36%, 2039 (m)	A3/–/–	03/14	£175	4.50	120	n/s	n/s	n/s	n/s
Genfinance II 6.06%, 2039 (m)	A3/A-/A	12/09	£250	6.06	170	5.45	+11	113	-7
London & Quadrant 5.50%, 2039 (m)	A3/A-/A+	01/10	£300	5.55	115	5.37	+5	105	-12
Sanctuary 6.69%, 2039 (m)	A2/A/–	09/10	£320	4.85	100	5.09	+10	77	-7
Sovereign 5.70%, 2039 (m)	A3/A/–	08/09	£175	5.70	155	5.27	+17	95	-1
THFC (Funding No.2) 6.35%, 2039 (m)	–/A/–	04/11	£371	5.39	105	5.33	+14	101	-4
Hyde 5.12%, 2040 (m)	–/A/A+	07/10	£250	5.12	105	5.10	+14	78	-4
Moat 5.10%, 2041 (m)	A2/–/–	09/11	£300	5.10	147	5.28	+12	96	-6
Platform 1.926%, 2041 (a)	–/A+/A+	09/21	£250	1.93	87	5.06	+16	64	+0
Midland Heart 5.08%, 2042 (n)	A1/–/–	10/12	£150	5.08	196	n/s	n/s	n/s	n/s
Affinity Sutton 4.25%, 2042 (n)	A3/A-/–	09/12	£250	4.31	125	5.61	+10	115	-6
East Thames 5.48%, 2042 (n)	A3/A-/A+	06/12	£250	5.47	250	5.51	+9	105	-7
Notting Hill 5.25%, 2042 (n)	A3/A-/A	07/11	£300	5.28	120	5.59	+10	113	-6
SHG Finance 6.38%, 2042 (j)	–/A-/–	06/01	£240	6.38	138	5.35	+22	147	+3
Sovereign 4.76%, 2042 (n)	A3/A/–	05/12	£250	4.77	170	5.38	+14	91	-2
Together 4.5%, 2042 (m)	A3/–/–	12/12	£350	4.50	145	5.46	+16	114	-2
Great Places 4.75%, 2042 (n)	A3/–/A+	11/12	£345	4.81	170	5.45	+13	99	-3
Hastoe 5.60%, 2042 (n)	A3/–/–	11/14	£200	4.27	144	5.72	-1	126	-17
Saxon Weald 5.37%, 2042 (k)	A3/–/–	05/12	£225	5.49	248	5.81	+48	130	-7
WM Housing Group 4.62%, 2042 (n)	A3/–/–	01/20	£260	2.60	155	5.49	+13	103	-3
Affordable Housing Finance 3.80%, 2042 (n)	–/AA/–	05/14	£601	3.71	37	4.75	+12	29	-4
Aster 4.59%, 2043 (n)	–/A/–	12/13	£450	4.59	105	5.16	+17	70	+1
Longhurst 3.25%, 2043 (n)	A3/–/–	05/18	£350	3.35	148	5.64	+11	118	-4
THFC (Funding No.3) 5.17%, 2043 (n)	–/A/–	10/13	£1,055	4.50	105	5.43	+12	97	-4
Optivo 5.25%, 2043 (n)	A3/–/–	09/13	£300	4.68	215	5.63	+7	117	-9
CHP 4.75%, 2043 (n)	–/A-/–	03/21	£250	2.58	133.5	5.73	+8	127	-8
Affordable Housing Finance 2.89%, 2043 (n)	–/AA/–	08/15	£1,143	2.82	40	4.75	+12	29	-4
Peabody (Capital No.2) 5.25%, 2043 (n)	A3/A-/–	11/13	£200	4.63	105	5.49	+6	103	-10
Home Group 3.13%, 2043 (n)	–/A-/–	03/19	£350	3.25	170	5.64	+11	118	-5
LiveWest, 2.25%, 2043 (n)	A2/–/–	10/19	£250	2.35	140	5.16	+17	70	+1
Circle Anglia 5.20%, 2044 (n)	A3/A-/–	02/12	£250	5.22	198	5.68	+12	122	-3
Guinness 4.00%, 2044 (n)	A3/A-/–	10/14	£250	4.02	130	5.30	+9	84	-6
Riverside 3.87%, 2044 (n)	Baa1/–/A	11/14	£250	3.87	135	5.68	+7	122	-9
Wheatley 4.37%, 2044 (n)	–/A+/–	11/14	£300	4.37	160	5.33	+8	87	-8
BPHA 4.81%, 2044 (n)	–/A+/–	03/14	£350	4.81	135	5.36	+13	90	-3
East Midlands 4.50%, 2044 (n)	–/A+/–	01/14	£200	4.59	108	5.39	+13	93	-3
Grand Union 4.62%, 2044 (n)	A3/–/–	11/13	£150	4.66	114	6.09	+3	163	-13
Yorkshire 4.12%, 2044 (n)	A3/–/–	10/14	£200	4.23	135	5.54	+10	108	-6
Futures Treasury 3.375%, 2044 (l)	–/A+/–	04/22	£270	2.31	25	5.38	+14	87	-1
Orbit 3.5%, 2045 (p)	A3/–/–	03/15	£250	3.61	115	3.74	-5	99	-5
WHG 4.25%, 2045 (n)	A2/–/–	10/14	£250	4.28	125	5.35	+13	89	-3
Cambridgeshire Housing Capital 4.25%, 2045 (p)	–/A/–	09/14	£150	4.39	120	3.66	-8	91	-8
Housing & Care 21 3.29%, 2047 (w)	–/A-/–	11/17	£500	3.16	138	5.61	+14	108	-2
Paragon 3.62%, 2047 (p)	A3/BBB+/–	01/15	£250	3.62	140	4.11	-5	136	-5
Sanctuary 5.08%, 2047 (r)	A2/A/–	11/13	£450	4.20	78	5.46	+9	92	-6
Catalyst 3.13%, 2047 (w)	–/A-/–	10/17	£400	3.21	130	5.55	+11	102	-5
Karbon Homes 3.37%, 2047 (w)	–/A/–	11/18	£250	3.50	153	5.20	+13	67	-3
Southern Housing Group 3.50%, 2047 (w)	A3/–/–	10/18	£300	3.62	158	5.79	+11	126	-5
GreenSquare- Accord, 5.25%, 2047 (w)	Baa1/–/A	11/22	£400	5.40	210	5.72	+11	120	-5
Bromford 3.13%, 2048 (w)	A2/A+/–	04/18	£300	3.25	135	5.31	+16	79	-0
Clarion Funding 3.13%, 2048 (w)	A3/A-/–	01/21	£500	1.77	88	5.50	+11	97	-5
Metropolitan 4.12%, 2048 (r)	–/A-/–	09/15	£250	4.12	167	5.87	+13	133	-2
Optivo Finance 3.28%, 2048 (w)	A3/–/–	03/18	£250	3.28	100	5.67	+11	115	-5
Swan 3.62%, 2048 (p)	–/BBB+/–	02/15	£250	3.68	130	3.88	-10	112	-10
Notting Hill 3.25%, 2048 (w)	A3/A-/A	10/17	£400	3.28	135	5.46	+3	94	-12
WM Housing Group 3.25%, 2048 (w)	A3/–/–	10/17	£280	3.30	137	5.51	+13	99	-3
RHP 3.25%, 2048 (p)	–/A+/–	09/20	£175	1.79	105	3.47	-6	72	-6
Orbit 3.4%, 2048 (n)	A3/–/–	06/18	£450	3.46	160	5.41	+6	94	-10
Peabody 3.25%, 2048 (w)	A3/A-/–	09/18	£450	3.37	155	5.48	+6	95	-9
Wrekin 2.5%, 2048 (w)	–/A/–	10/19	£250	2.61	148	5.42	+12	90	-4
Sovereign, 2.375%, 2048 (w)	A3/A/–	09/19	£375	2.48	127	5.39	+15	86	-0
Hexagon 3.625%, 2048 (w)	–/BBB+/–	04/22	£250	3.67	167	5.88	+10	136	-6
London & Quadrant 3.75%, 2049 (s)	A3/A-/A+	10/15	£250	3.75	135	5.55	-1	101	-17
Blend Funding Plc 3.46%, 2047/49 (w)	A2/–/–	03/22	£588	3.56	158	5.38	+14	85	-2
Incommunities 3.3%, 2049 (s)	–/A/–	03/19	£250	3.29	157	5.28	+15	74	-1
Accent Capital 2.63%, 2049 (s)	–/A/–	07/19	£350	2.73	130	5.26	+14	72	-2
Sanctuary 2.375%, 2050 (s)	A2/A/–	04/20	£350	2.38	170	5.35	+8	81	-7
Beyond Housing 2.125%, 2051 (y)	A2/–/–	05/21	£250	2.22	90	5.16	+14	68	-2
Paradigm 2.250%, 2051 (y)	–/A+/–	05/21	£250	2.28	88	5.21	+14	73	-3
Anchor Hanover Group 2.00%, 2051 (y)	–/A+/–	07/21	£350	2.00	93	5.21	+17	73	+0
Clarion Funding Plc 1.875%, 2051 (b)	A3/A-/–	09/21	£300	1.98	93	5.45	+9	95	-8
Saltaire, 1.527%, 2051 (b)	Aa3/–/–	11/21	£350	1.53	38	4.85	+12	34	-4
Martlet Homes Ltd 3.00%, 2052 (t)	–/A/A+	05/17	£400	3.04	140	5.28	+16	75	-1
PenArian Housing Finance Plc 3.21%, 2052 (w)	A3/A/–	06/17	£250	3.26	155	5.52	+11	100	-4
Jigsaw, 3.375%, 2052 (t)	A2/–/–	05/22	£360	3.50	157	5.24	+21	71	+4
London & Quadrant 3.13%, 2053 (t)	A3/A-/A+	02/18	£335	3.16	135	5.45	+6	92	-11
Peabody 4.62%, 2053 (t)	A3/A-/–	12/13	£350	4.62	105	5.38	+7	85	-9
Onward, 2.125%, 2053 (t)	A1/–/–	03/21	£350	2.22	88	5.41	+13	88	-4
Notting Hill 4.37%, 2054 (u)	A3/A-/A	03/14	£250	4.47	98	5.47	+7	95	-9
Blend Funding Plc 2.922%, 2054/56 (x)	A2/–/–	03/22	£607	2.25	115	5.34	+5	84	-11
Guinness 2.00%, 2055 (u)	A3/A-/–	04/20	£400	2.02	145	5.30	+10	78	-6
Hyde 1.75%, 2055 (u)	–/A/A+	08/20	£400	1.75	130	5.21	+14	68	-2
Platform 1.625%, 2055 (u)	–/A+/A+	08/20	£350	1.63	97.6	5.14	+15	61	-1
LiveWest 1.875%, 2056 (u)	A2/–/–	02/21	£250	1.90	90	5.22	+15	69	-1
London & Quadrant 2.75%, 2057 (u)	A3/A-/A+	07/17	£250	2.70	105	5.52	+7	99	-9
Sovereign, 5.5%, 2057 (o)	A3/A/–	01/24	£400	5.60	108	5.41	n/s	97	n/s

Notes: n/s = not stated: rarely traded and considered to be currently illiquid. Also includes FRESH Series 1, Funding for Homes, GESB, HACO, HAF and HSL, not listed above. n/a = new bond; Sources: Markit, Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, Royal Bank of Scotland; (bracket) UK Treasury reference gilts for bond issues: © 2024 Tradeweb Markets LLC. All rights reserved. The Tradeweb FTSE Gilt Closing; Prices information contained herein is proprietary to Tradeweb; may not be copied or re-distributed; is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and does not constitute investment advice. Tradeweb is not responsible for any loss or damage that might result from the use of this information

Sign up for Social Housing’s data analysis newsletter

Picture: Alamy

New to Social Housing? Click here to register and sign up for our data analysis newsletter

The data analysis newsletter is a twice-monthly round-up of Social Housing’s leading data analysis, keeping you up to speed on key trends and pointing you to all the data you need on financial and operating performance in the sector and beyond.

Already have an account? Click here to manage your newsletters.