The government’s housebuilding target of 1.5 million homes could be missed by at least 388,000 properties, according to a thinktank.
Centre for Cities has estimated that the government’s proposed changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, unveiled in July, will only deliver “up to” 1.12 million new homes by 2029 through the private sector.
As a result, the thinktank has called for a more “ambitious” approach.
Andrew Carter, chief executive of Centre for Cities, said: “For the country to achieve it (1.5 million new homes), parts of England would have to reach an 80-year high in housebuilding.
“This would be a huge positive for the country, but the approach has to be much more ambitious.
“We’re in a productivity crisis. The UK’s big cities are the jobs and productivity engines of the economy, but our planning system doesn’t allow – and has never allowed – them to build an adequate supply of homes for everyone that could work there.”
Based on historic trends, the thinktank said even if private development rose to the same level as its strongest ever period of performance under the current planning system, it would still fall 388,000 homes short of the government’s 1.5 million target.
Centre for Cities said this is a shortfall that is “unlikely to be bridged in full” by public sector housebuilding within the next five years.
The thinktank said that almost every part of the UK needs to build more private homes than the current system has delivered in 80 years in order for the country to meet its new housing target.
For Greater London, this requires adding more homes on an average annual basis than it did during its post-war high period from 2001 to 2022 and, for the rest of England, a higher rate than during its 1954 to 1979 high period.
Centre for Cities recommended the government replace the current discretionary planning system with a rules-based, flexible, European-style zoning system.
It said ministers should release some green belt land for development, especially in walking distance of railway stations with connections to England’s most expensive cities.
The thinktank said there should be an expanded role for the public sector in assembling land and preparing brownfield sites for development. It also called for a “substantial increase” in grant-funded public housebuilding, with a focus in cities, where affordability and quality outcomes are currently worst.
Mr Carter added: “By removing the discretionary element of the planning system, the UK would bring its planning system in line with most developed economies, remove a big block on housebuilding and enable places to better respond to future rises in demand for homes.
“We have done wholesale planning reform before, and we can do it again.
“What we can’t do is raise national economic growth – and reduce the strain high housing costs place on people’s spending power – if we don’t address the backlog of missing homes.”
A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said: “Despite the dire housebuilding inheritance we are trying to fix, we will deliver the 1.5 million homes our country desperately needs and get Britain building again.
“To get there, the government has already outlined plans to streamline the planning system, restore mandatory housing targets, establish a programme to unblock homes stuck in the planning process, and set up a new body to deliver the next generation of new towns.
“On top of this, our Planning and Infrastructure Bill will go even further in overhauling the planning system to boost housebuilding and economic growth across the country.”
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