Eight housing associations, including four G15 landlords, have had their outlooks changed to ‘negative’ by S&P off the back of the credit rating agency taking similar action on the UK.
As a result of its latest move, S&P said 40 per cent of the 43 social landlords it rates now have negative outlooks, which is the “most pronounced negative bias in the sector’s creditworthiness” since 2018.
The landlords revised to negative outlooks last week were: Bromford, Gentoo, Hexagon, Hyde, L&Q, MTVH, PA Housing and Peabody (see full responses below). However, all eight had their credit ratings affirmed.
S&P said the action was due to it changing the UK’s outlook to “negative” last month following chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s so-called Mini Budget.
The agency said its decision on the UK was because of the government’s plan to “reduce a range of taxes in addition to its previously communicated intentions to extend wide-ranging support for households on energy bills”.
On the housing associations, S&P said: “We revised the outlooks on the... social housing providers because, if we were to downgrade the sovereign, we would apply fewer notches of uplift to their stand-alone credit profiles.”
However, S&P also pointed to social landlords’ “weakening intrinsic credit quality” .
It said: “Spending requirements are increasing given inflationary pressures and the need to improve the quality and safety of existing stock.”
The agency also echoed its warning last month about the impact of the government’s proposed tightening of the rent cap.
In addition, it said rents are increasing slower than inflation, which is “driving performance down and increasing debt burdens across the sector”.
In August, S&P said social housing providers’ creditworthiness could suffer if the gap between cost increases and rental income continues.
Separately, S&P downgraded Swan to a BB- rating last week. It said the Essex-based landlord’s financial position had “deteriorated rapidly over the past 10 months”. Its proposed merger with Orbit was also abandoned.
The 11,500-home Swan is hoping to seal a merger with Sanctuary by the end of next month.
Bromford
Imran Mubeen, Bromford’s director of treasury, said: “We continue to work with our rating agencies and expected our S&P rating to be maintained at A+ with our outlook to be revised to negative to reflect the agency’s recent revision to the UK sovereign.
“There are no factors specific to us which have led to this change. We look forward to presenting our updated business plan to S&P later this year and are proactively working through the challenges of rising inflation and a potential rent cap.
“We are absolutely committed to delivering investment to support our customers at a critical time with the increasing cost of living.
“It is imperative we do this whilst also pulling the levers open to us to maintain a dual credit rating platform that remains attractive to the investor community. This will ensure we continue to bring in new funding to deliver even more investment in existing and new homes.”
Hyde Group
Rod Holdsworth, Hyde Group’s chief financial and resources officer, said: “Hyde’s A+ credit rating from S&P is one of the highest in the sector, reflecting our financial strength. S&P has changed our outlook from A+ stable to A+ negative, entirely because its outlook for the UK government (sovereign debt) has changed from stable to negative.”
MTVH
Ian Johnson, MTVH’s chief financial officer, said: “MTVH is one of eight housing associations which have automatically been put onto a ‘negative outlook’ in respect of their credit rating, following S&P Global’s decision to put the UK sovereign credit rating onto a negative outlook.
“All housing associations receive an implicit level of government support, but the level of that support varies according to the underlying housing association credit rating and certain other factors.
“In this case, without any change at all in the underlying rating, these housing associations, including MTVH, were affected because of the level of government support implied within their headline rating.
“Fundamentally, this is an issue of the methodology applied by S&P Global and nothing to do with a change to the underlying credit strength of MTVH. MTVH remains A- rated by S&P Global and A by Fitch.”
PA Housing
Simon Hatchman, executive director of resources at PA Housing, said: “S&P [has] downgraded the UK sovereign outlook, which in turn has had an impact on ratings across the sector. We are pleased that although S&P have revised our outlook to negative, they have affirmed our A- rating.
“[S&P has highlighted] our focus on low-risk traditional housing activities, while maintaining moderate exposure to development-for-sale activities along with their view that our management team has extensive experience in the social housing sector, with a strong focus on customer experience.”
Peabody
A Peabody Group spokesperson said: “This revision affects several housing associations and reflects a negative outlook in the UK sovereign credit rating. With robust financial planning and scenario stress-testing in place, we are well positioned to withstand wider headwinds and continue to deliver for our residents.
“We will be prudent, limiting the cost of borrowing through effective cash management, and we are prioritising spending on building safety and investing in maintaining and improving people’s homes and the neighbourhoods where they live. With an annual rent subsidy of £679m, we continue to make a wide-ranging positive difference and remain an extremely strong investment proposition.”
L&Q and Gentoo declined to comment. Hexagon has been approached for comment.
Social Housing’s weekly news bulletin delivers the latest news and insight across finance and funding, regulation and governance, policy and strategy, straight to your inbox. Meanwhile, news alerts bring you the biggest stories as they land.
Already have an account? Click here to manage your newsletters.
RELATED