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Social housing sector reacts to reports of new 10-year CPI plus 1% rent formula

The social housing sector has welcomed reports that the chancellor is planning to introduce a 10-year rent settlement in which social housing rents will be permitted to increase by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus one per cent each year.

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The social housing sector has welcomed reports that the chancellor is planning to introduce a 10-year rent settlement of CPI plus one per cent #UKhousing #SocialHousingFinance

According to the Financial Times, Rachel Reeves plans to introduce the 10-year formula for social landlords in England in October’s Budget to give providers certainty over income and help increase the supply of affordable housing.

 

The rent cap of CPI plus one per cent has been in place since it was introduced in 2020-21, with the exception of 2023-24, after the government intervened with a rent cap of seven per cent.

 

In April, the Conservative government extended the current CPI plus one per cent rent settlement by one year to cover 2025-26. 

 

CPI rose by 2.2 per cent in the 12 months to July 2024, so if it stays at its current level in September, rent increases would be permitted at up to 3.2 per cent in the next financial year under existing plans.


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A number of voices in the sector have been calling for a new long-term settlement to enable greater certainty in business planning and to attract investment.

 

Asked about the reports of a new 10-year settlement, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said: “Work is ongoing to fix the foundations of our housing and planning system and we will set out our plans at the next fiscal event.”

 

Fiona Fletcher-Smith, chair of the G15 and chief executive of L&Q, welcomed reports that the chancellor was considering a long-term rent settlement for social housing.

 

She said: “This policy could significantly enhance the delivery of new affordable homes in London and across the UK. Although it is yet to be confirmed, it represents a crucial first step towards providing the stability and financial certainty that not-for-profit housing associations need.


“The G15 has long advocated for a rent settlement, and we look forward to working with the government on additional measures, such as rent convergence, to unlock even more housing opportunities.

 

“If the government commits to the reported 10-year plan for a rent settlement, it could be transformative for our sector, but it must be part of a broader strategy to address the social housing crisis.”

 

James Prestwich, director of policy and external affairs at the Chartered Institute of Housing, said it was clear that the government understood the sector needed rent certainty.

 

“It is clear that ministers and officials understand a rent settlement needs to provide certainty to landlords and investors, enabling housing providers to plan investment in social homes over the long term,” he said.

 

“Of course, this must also be balanced by the need for social rents to remain affordable for people living in social housing.”

Richard Petty, head of UK residential valuation at JLL, said that if the reports were true, it was “exactly what the social housing sector has been asking for”.

 

“It will boost valuations. But we’ve been here before, so it will need to be absolutely immutable,” he said.

 

Previous governments changed rent policy even after agreeing multi-year settlements. In 2015, then-chancellor George Osborne tore up a 10-year rent settlement after only two years, instead introducing a four-year annual one per cent cut to rents, which ended in March 2020.

 

The current rent settlement, which began in April 2020, had been intended to last for five years, but was the subject of government intervention in November 2022, when ministers introduced a temporary cap for the 2023-24 financial year.

 

Mr Petty added: “A cap and collar would not be a bad thing over 10 years, to help make it stick.

 

“And the trick will be to ensure that the revenue is channelled in the right direction, into investment in new homes. 

 

“It’s been clear for a long time that social housing rents are being asked to cover too much – housing associations can’t pay for everything all at once.

 

“If we are serious about improving the energy efficiency and quality of existing stock as well as delivering new affordable homes, either something has to give or funding has to be put in place to do both.”

 

In a statement to MPs on 30 July, housing secretary Angela Rayner said Ms Reeves will outline plans for “rent stability”.

 

At the time, she said: “The government also recognises that councils and housing associations need support to build their capacity and make a greater contribution to affordable housing supply – which is why we will set out plans at the next fiscal event to give councils and housing associations the rent stability they need to be able to borrow and invest in both new and existing homes, while also ensuring that there are appropriate protections for both existing and future social housing tenants.”

 

The sector has been calling for long-term rent certainty for some time. A recent report from the G15, the group of London’s largest housing associations, said a new rent settlement should be in place for a minimum of 10 years and be tied to inflation.  

 

The current five-year settlement, spanning 2020-21 to 2024-25, allows landlords to increase rents by CPI plus one per cent.

 

However, 2023-24 was an exception. The government intervened in November 2022 to cap annual rent increases at seven per cent, following a consultation.

 

In April this year, the government extended the CPI plus one per cent formula for 2025-26.

More sector reaction

 

Tracy Harrison, chief executive of the Northern Housing Consortium, said: “These are welcome signs that the government has been listening to the sector. Over the past 10 years, we have seen the rent settlement changed repeatedly – despite a previous 10-year guarantee. This has fundamentally undermined the business model of social housing providers, impacting much-needed investment in new and existing homes.

 

“We need a 10-year rent guarantee of CPI plus one per cent to support housing providers to unlock a new wave of investment, in both developing new homes and improving existing homes. We look forward to the government’s decision on this in the autumn Budget.

 

“We and others have been consistently asking the government to deliver a long-term financial settlement for the social housing sector, including long-term certainty over rents and future grant funding. Crucially, the sector needs to see a new Affordable Homes Programme, with the scale and flexibility to meet the North’s affordable housing challenge, as landlords plan their future developments beyond the existing programme.”

 

Kate Henderson, chief executive of the National Housing Federation, said: “Today over eight million people are living in unsuitable, unaffordable homes, or they are homeless. Housing associations are ready to work with the government to end this crisis, but they need the right package of enabling measures from the government in order to do so.


“Housing associations are under pressure because of higher operating costs driven by, among other factors, the recent period of high inflation and unfunded fire and building safety remediation costs. A combination of rent reductions and caps have meant rental income is 15 per cent lower in real terms than it was in 2015; this equated to £3bn in lost rental income for housing associations last year. This has inevitably led to a reduction in plans for building new affordable and social housing at a time when they are needed more than ever.


“We welcome the government’s commitment to set out plans at the next fiscal event to provide greater rent stability to social landlords so they can have the certainty they need to plan investment in new and existing affordable homes over the long term whilst ensuring social rents remain affordable for residents.”

 

A spokesperson for Peabody said: “Decades of underfunding and disrupted rent policies have significantly diminished the sector’s financial capacity, and any steps that can bring us more stability will help us to deliver more for residents.

 

“We’ve been calling for a solid, long-term plan – and talk of a rent settlement that’s linked to inflation and set for 10 years is very welcome. With the right support from the government, we’re optimistic about the future.”

 

Clare Miller, chief executive of Clarion Housing Group, said: “Cuts to the rent settlement over the past seven years have had a destabilising impact for all social landlords, resulting in a loss that has now increased to £120m a year at Clarion, and £560m in total since 2017.

“A 10-year rent settlement of CPI plus one per cent would give us the certainty we need to plan investment in our existing properties over the long term and would mean rents are affordable for tenants and still lower, in real terms, than they were in 2015.

“With this injection of stability, we would also be provided with the confidence to deliver ambitious build plans over the long term, and help the government to realise its vision of building much-needed new social and affordable homes at scale.”

 

Geeta Nanda, chief executive of Metropolitan Thames Valley, said: “Long-term stability and certainty on rents are essential to the housing sector, and we are encouraged to see that the government’s recognises this. 

 

“A long-term settlement on social rents as part of a package of support measures, will better enable housing providers to meet the growing challenges of investment in existing homes alongside the delivery of desperately needed new, social and affordable homes.

 

“We look forward to further engagement with government on this and to working with them on our shared ambition of tackling the housing crisis once and for all.”

 

Ian Fletcher, director of policy – real estate, at the British Property Federation, said: “A 10-year rent settlement in the social housing sector would be a good way of boosting the supply of affordable homes. It would encourage greater investment in the sector by providing the certainty and stability that investors seek in investing in the sector.

 

“For example, long-term investors, such as pension funds, who want to match their investment returns with their liabilities paying pensioners. It would also reduce risk in the sector and therefore allow it to raise capital at lower rates, in effect a form of subsidy. We are therefore encouraged to see the new government is considering this.”

 

Imran Mubeen, a director at Newbridge Advisors, said: “We would welcome the potential inclusion of a long term rent settlement above inflation in the chancellor’s October’s budget, with a commitment to CPI plus one per cent over 10 years. This will naturally present an opportunity for housing associations to breathe new life into their business plans and explore new investment opportunities with greater certainty over future income.

 

“We expect this will be appealing to investors, and it has been a subject of strong focus on roadshows over recent times.  Housing associations will still need to carefully consider how they deploy new investment to balance between the competing pressures across existing homes and the delivery of much needed new homes, whilst ensuring rents remain truly affordable for residents.”

 

Emma O’Shea, chief operating and technology officer at Aster Group, said: “Our sector has long been calling out for more clarity on social rent and we would welcome the certainty of a 10-year plan. Consistency in how social rent is calculated would give us the stability to invest even more in our customers’ homes so they’re as safe, comfortable and sustainable as possible, and meet their evolving needs.

 

“This ability to plan for the longer term means we would also be able to play our role in helping the government achieve its ambitious housebuilding targets, by helping deliver more much needed new affordable homes.”

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